Projecting The Red Sox 2023 Opening Day Roster

With just under three weeks left until pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training, the Boston Red Sox are still making moves. On Tuesday, Boston traded reliever Josh Taylor to the Kansas City Royals for infielder Adalberto Mondesi, and a player to be named later.

Going into the 2023 season, Red Sox looked as if it would have a few cracks that would eventually get filled, but as the offseason winds down, some of the holes appear to be closing slowly – one with Mondesi, freeing up a spot in the bullpen for the Boston to sign a free agent such as a Will Smith or Matt Wisler or a prolonged look at someone within the system.

Along free agent signings – or lack thereof in the case of Xander Bogaerts – and trades, injuries have played a role in the off-season as well, with Trevor Story getting surgery on his Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) which will cause him to miss at least the first month or two of the season.

Here’s what the team should look like come Opening Day.

*Indicates that they will be on the 40-Man Roster.
**Indicates that they will be on IL to start the season.

Designated Hitter (1)

Starter – Justin Turner (2022 Numbers – 128 Games, .278 AVG, 13 HR, 81 RBI)
Backup(s) – Rafael Devers, Triston Casas

With the departure of J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox were in desperate need of a Designated Hitter, but were also looking for someone who could play in the field if needed: enter Turner. And to think they what they had to give up to get him… Nothing…

For Turner, there really shouldn’t be any need for a backup as he hits both lefties and righties well, doesn’t get hurt much, and is simply a a DH, so injuries should be limited at best, but look at Devers or Casas to take on the spot if they need a day off from the field.

Infielders (5)

First Base

Starter – Triston Casas (2022 Numbers – 27 Games, .197 AVG, 5 HR, 12 RBI)
Backup(s) – Justin Turner, Christian Arroyo, *Bobby Dalbec

There shouldn’t be any doubt in anyone’s mind who will be starting at first base coming into the 2023 season. Casas showed why he was such a heralded prospect in his limited time in Boston last season, but it was enough for anyone to see that he’s here to stay.

Turner was brought in in the off-season to act as a DH/first baseman (expect him to be more in the former role), but given his experience as a proven bat, put him above the latter two at the position.

Put Dalbec in as the last resort at first base, given his lack of production since his breakout rookie year, but don’t count him out sneaking his way onto the 40-Man Roster, especially given his ability to play both corners.

Second Base

Starter – Kike Hernandez (2022 Numbers – 93 Games, .222 AVG, 6 HR, 45 RBI)
Backup(s) – **Trevor Story, Adalberto Mondesi, Christian Arroyo

Now as excited as Hernandez is to start the season, my inclination is that Boston will play it safe and put him where he has more big league experience. While, he has played a handful of games on the left-side of the infield and has said it is his “favorite position to play”, don’t be alarmed if you see Alex Cora play the experience card to at least open the season.

In 2022, Hernandez played 10 games at shortstop – his most since 2019, when he played 11 – but a lot of his time in 2022 was injury fill-in, or rest days for Bogaerts, and despite being excited, he looked a bit lost. Look for Hernandez to slide into his alternate spot from center field at second base.

Shortstop

Starter – Adalberto Mondesi (2022 Numbers, Missed Most of Season Due To Injury – 15 Games, .140, 0 HR, 5 RBI)
Backup(s) – Kike Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, **Trevor Story

Mondesi was an interesting addition this late in the off-season, but no doubt brings some speed, pop, and versatility to a broken down infield. Now, not only does Mondesi bring the ability to play anywhere in the infield except first base (where he has never played at the major league-level), but he is also a switch-hitter – giving him an unpredictability at the dish.

Mondesi’s range will help him tracking down balls in the hole, and give Boston the speed it has missed at shortstop for oh so many years, and not to mention the vacuum that his glove represents. Bogaerts left a gaping hole in terms of his glove, and arm, but Mondesi will replace that and add speed and age – where he is three years younger than Bogaerts – to his advantage.

Third Base

Starter – Rafael Devers (2022 Numbers – 141 Games, .295 AVG,, 27 HR, 88 RBI)
Backup(s) – Justin Turner, Adalberto Mondesi, Christian Arroyo

I’ll be real here, after Bogaerts left for the greener pastures of Petco Park, and the San Diego Padres, I truly thought I was going to be writing someone else’s name here as the starting third baseman. Thankfully, Chaim Bloom, and the Red Sox front office had other ideas and signed Devers to an 11-year, $313.5 million.

The only true backup to Devers is truly Turner, given his experience at the hot corner, but given the other’s ability to play all over the infield, it’s worth putting them at the spot just in case Turner can’t fulfil his duties or has to play elsewhere (first base).

Outfield (5)

Left Field

Starter – Masataka Yoshida (*Did not play in MLB*, JPWL Numbers – 121 Games, .336 AVG, 21 HR, 89 RBI)
Backup(s) – Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo

When the Boston first signed Yoshida to a five-year, $105.4 million, Red Sox fans first looked at each other in a look of bewilderment – both that Bloom had done something useful, and also a look of “where the heck are they gonna play this guy?” Soon it came out that he was a corner outfielder and then it became clear: Left field.

While Yoshida is an intriguing name, Duvall and Verdugo are two very viable options both given their power and ability to play the field. Over the last three seasons in Boston, Verdugo has become one of the better left-handed throwing left-fielders to play the Green Monster – joining Andrew Benintendi in that group – and Duvall won a Gold Glove in 2021. Look for left field to be a safe (and deep) position for the Sox going into 2023.

Center Field

Starter – Adam Duvall (2022 Numbers – 86 Games, .213 AVG, 12 HR, 36 RBI)
Backup(s) – Raimel Tapia, Alex Verdugo, Rob Refsnyder, Kike Hernandez, *Jarren Duran, *Ceddanne Rafaella

Not normally a natural center fielder, Duvall should look to get the start in center field going into 2023. While he is a Gold Glove winner in right field, the transition to center field for Duvall should not prove to be much of a struggle. He has a strong arm, and coming off a wrist-injury at the end of 2022, having to throw the distance to only one base, as opposed to two, should help him in his recovery.

While Duvall will provide the defense in the outfield, Tapia can provide speed, and boy did he show it in 2022 – hitting an inside-the-park grand slam to center field at Fenway – much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans. Hernandez will remain in the mix to play center field, and will likely start there once Story is back from his injury, but despite their potential (and given the depth in the outfield), don’t expect Duran or Rafaella to start the season in Boston. Don’t be surprised if they’re called up when the Roster expands, however/

Right Field

Starter – Alex Verdugo (2022 Numbers – 152 Games, .280 AVG, 11 HR, 74 RBI)
Backup(s) – Adam Duvall, Rob Refsnyder

After the monster season he put together, both at the plate and in the field, I don’t see Verdugo playing anywhere else. In 2022, he had the same amount of assists in right than left (four in each position), but committed less errors and had a double play from right field.

While you could throw Tapia in there as another possible backup here, we’ll let him stay in center field for now. There is a possibility of a platoon with Verdugo and Duvall in right field given Duvall’s pop, and have someone else start in center (maybe Tapia), but given his consistent history at the position, look for Duvall to be the primary option to back Verdugo up. Look for Refsnyder more as a bat off the bench option, but don’t discount his ability to hit in clutch situations.

Catchers (2)

Starter(s) – Platoon, Jorge Alfaro (2022 Numbers – 82 Games, .246 AVG, 7 HR, 40 RBI) and Reese McGuire (2022 Numbers – 89 Games, .269 AVG, 3 HR, 22 RBI)
Backup – N/A, *Connor Wong

After losing Christian Vazquez first to a trade to the Houston Astros, then to him signing with the Minnesota Twins as a free agent, then designating Kevin Plawecki for assignment, Boston was a very limited team when it came to catchers. Now, going into 2023 they’re still very limited, but with the signing of Alfaro, they at least have options. Watch for him and McGuire to split time behind the plate – Alfaro against lefties, and McGuire against righties.

Alfaro replaces Vazquez’s power in the lineup, in addition to his ability to get on base, whereas McGuire promises to be just as good defensively behind the plate as Vazquez. Wong has some promise, but look for him to start the season in Worcester to fine-tune his approach at the plate.

Pitchers

Starting Rotation (5)

Picking the starting rotation is always difficult, especially before Spring Training has even begun, but given the depth of the staff going into 2023, it should be relatively easy to at least guess.

  1. Chris Sale (2022 Numbers – 2 Games, 0-1 Record, 3.18 ERA, 5 SO 1 BB)
  2. Nick Pivetta (2022 Numbers – 33 Games, 10-12 Record, 4.56 ERA, 175 SO, 73 BB)
  3. James Paxton (Did not pitch in 2022)
  4. Corey Kluber (2022 Numbers – 31 Games, 10-10 Record, 4.34 ERA, 139 SO, 21 BB)
  5. Opener Day: Garrett Whitlock (2022 Numbers – 31 Games (9 Starts) – 4-2 Record, 3.45 ERA, 82 SO, 15 BB) or Brayan Bello (2022 Numbers – 13 Games (11 Starts) – 2-8 Record, 4.71 ERA, 55 SO, 27 BB)

At the end of the day this rotation, looks solid on paper, but losing Nathan Eovaldi to the Texas Rangers was hard. However, Kluber looks like the perfect replacement, and that’s not just because he throws a solid sinker too. He, like Eovaldi, has endurance and can give the bullpen a break if need be, and can get hitters out with minimal pitches thrown.

The two question marks to me are Paxton and Whitlock. Paxton, of course, pitching in his first season since 2021 and first in Boston, and Whitlock pitching in his first full season as a starter. Whitlock was a solid long reliever for the Red Sox in 2022, but his starts were a bit shaky. Hopefully management can realize his potential to go for shorter periods, and maybe use him as an “opener” in the same way that Tampa Bay does on their fifth day through the rotation. As for Bello, who knows what we’ll see out of him this year.

Another question mark is Sale at the top. Sure, he has ace characteristics and is probably the best of the bunch, but after only pitching in two games due to a broken finger and broken wrist in 2022, fans can only hope for the old version in 2023.

Bullpen (7)

Going into 2023, the bullpen was an obvious piece that needed to be upgraded with 2022 going by the wayside with no specific roles carved out for anyone – especially at the closer position.

After Matt Barnes was Designated For Assignment following the Mondesi trade, the opens up the door for anyone to take the set-up man role, but this is how the bullpen projects going into 2023.

Long Relievers (2) ***Indicates also starter
***Brayan Bello/Garrett Whitlock*** (whoever has not started recently)
Kutter Crawford
Josh Winckowski

Crawford and Winckowski were at one time were thought to be heralded prospects, and were ready to command the back end of the rotation. Instead, in 2022, they proved to valuable innings-eaters out of the bullpen when the Red Sox starters couldn’t get out of their own way or needed some help early on.

Bello and Whitlock are the only question marks on this list as most fans want to see what Bello has as a starter, and most are clamoring for Whitlock to be put back into the bullpen despite management claiming they like him as a starter.

Medium Relievers (2)
Chris Martin
Joely Rodriguez

Martin and Rodriguez were both brought in through free agency to lock up the middle part of Boston’s bullpen and to act as a metaphorical bridge between starters and the closer if both long relievers and set-up guys need a day off.

Both Martin and Rodriguez – Martin more than Rodriguez – have proven themselves in the past to be more than capable in this role in the past, look for Cora to look at Martin more often when the game is on the line.

Set-Up Man/Men (1)
John Schreiber
*Tanner Houck

Perhaps the most reliable pitcher on the entire team in 2022, there is no doubt Schreiber will be in the set-up man going into 2023. Whenever he entered a game, there was almost no doubt in anyone’s mind that the game was safe. Occasionally, he had his slip-ups, but a 2.22 ERA should assure Red Sox fans that the 8th inning will be safe.

Houck, on the other hand, is a question mark. Not just on the mound, but because of his injury history. While he is a solid pitcher, throws the ball hard, and is a mirror image (literally and figuratively speaking) of Sale, but after hurting his shoulder in 2022, look for him to start the season in AAA before coming back to the big leagues.

Closer (1)
Kenley Jansen

Quite possibly the biggest signing of the offseason for Boston, Jansen brings with him an assuredness that the game is closed down in the 9th inning for the first since the team had Craig Kimbrel.

Nothing else needs to be said as there is no doubt at this position – barring any sort of injury during spring training. Watch for the Red Sox to limit his innings though, as they will need him come Opening Day.

What the season brings remains to be seen, but in the meantime, it’s time to enjoy Spring Training.

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